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Friday, January 24, 2014

Is There Such a Thing as a Liberal Market Monetarist?

      Sumner and friends have often intimated yes.

      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/01/yes-scott-ive-rejected-neoliberalism.html

      Sumner has gone further and intimated that Keynesians are political in their argument for fiscal stimulus-they just want bigger government-while intimating that the same is not true of Monetarists-who argue that we should only use monetary policy for AD.

       I see that Tom Brown seems to have bought the argument based on a comment he wrote in a recent post.

       "Also, I'm going to say that it's quite possible to be a liberal MMist: you could be all for more gov involvement in things and still think that monetary policy using NGDPLT trumps fiscal policy every time for the purpose of avoiding unnecessary recessions or depressions (caused by shocks)."

       http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/01/cantillion-effects-anyone.html#comment-form

       I've got to say I disagree with this and that in fact it's at the crux of my whole problem with MMers. I think they package it this way.

     
     "If I was a socialist my views on monetary policy would be exactly the same, target NGDP. I guess you never heard about the liberals who favor NGDPLT."  

     "Garrett gets it, so why can’t you?"

      http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=25886&cpage=2#comment-313381

       Here's what the commentator Garret writes:

      "It seems to me that one could implement NGDPLT while still setting government spending at whatever % of NGDP is desired."

      "In fact, I’ll do it right now. I propose that the US government increase the tax burden to 48.2% of GDP and increase government spending to 56% of GDP. That would put us right where Denmark is, a country that Prof. Sumner has written highly of several times on this blog."

      "So supposedly those who call for fiscal stimulus want big government but those who call for monetary policy alone don't favor small government? I've got to say that Scott is a tremendous propagandist. I can't but admire how so many who read him repeat him word for word in parrot fashion. Here is the commentator J. Mann

      "Mike, if Scott’s right, then we could have gotten out of the recession years ago if Obama, Krugman, etc. had clearly followed the following strategy."

       "1) We need to try unconventional monetary stimulus to get the economy moving. If not offset by the fed, an employer side tax cut would also be a good idea."

        "2) As a related issue, while long term rates are low, this is a good time to finance the following positive value government projects: a, b, c. "

      "Then even if (2) was politically infeasible, at least you could exert pressure in the direction of (1). Now it’s true that Obama and Krugman want a bigger government than I do, but presumably we all wanted the recession to end." 

      "If Scott’s not right, then (1) would be a waste of time, but if he is, then Obama left money on the table by giving up on monetary policy early on, and the best case you can make for Krugman is that he failed to clearly articulate that unconventional monetary policy might work and was worth trying."

      He even agrees with him to do a payroll tax cut only for employers-employees get no tax cut. I've never said don't do 1 and 2. I'd be fine with the current Evans Rule but no sequester for instance-at least this year the level of fiscal consolidation is decreasing.

      It's Scott who insists as a religious conviction that we can't do 2. I see no reason why any liberal has to eschew fiscal policy. What would be the reason? There is none. If you want smaller government as Morgan Warstler admits forthrightly no explanation is necessary.
     

       

6 comments:

  1. Mike, check this one out:

    http://uneasymoney.com/2014/01/23/barro-and-krugman-yet-again-on-regular-economics-vs-keynesian-economics/

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  2. Mike, I have to say I take Sumner at his word with your above quote and with this (which are the next lines):

    "Everyone, If my monetary policy is a 5% NGDP growth target, then anything the government does to create 5% expected NGDP growth effectively means they’ve implemented my monetary policy. Now they may have also done other things, and I may or many not approve of those other things, but they’ve implemented my monetary policy.

    MM is not about interest rates or the monetary base, it’s about expected NGDP growth. Get that on target and you’ve got a MM monetary policy. It doesn’t matter whether you use QE, fiscal stimulus, currency depreciation or or a magic wand. Of course if you do fiscal stimulus you’ve done more than implement a MM monetary policy. But if you are successful you have at least done that. If you do it by eliminating the corporate income tax (something I favor) I’ll applaud. But I’ll still see the tax cut as being essentially unrelated to monetary policy. If it causes the Fed to “see the light,” that’s great. But in the end of the day it’s up to the Fed."

    There's more to Sumner than being an MMist: he also advocates a neoliberal/libertarian agenda. But he's saying here it's possible to separate those things. I do have to take him at his word there. Couldn't that explain advocacy of his politics that you find in his posts? ... I think he answers the question here directly "Do you have to adopt your politics to be an MMist?" ... and his answer is "no"

    http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=25886&cpage=2#comment-313204

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    Replies
    1. I'll grant you that one of Sumner's goals may very well be to defeat Keynesianism. However, forget MM for a moment: is it your belief that being a Keynesian is an essential part of being a liberal? Why? Get creative: what would a liberal non-Keynesian be like? :D

      BTW, I recently asked Sumner to get creative and tell me why NGDPLT might fail. He did eventually give me a reason. But first, here's Garret's take on it:

      http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=26025#comment-314891

      That proved to be unpopular with other MMists, including Scott:

      http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=26025#comment-314945

      Scott's reply to me is here:

      http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=26025#comment-315014

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    2. ... I left it at that, although I found those answers to be unsatisfying. I don't really have a good feel for what either Scott or Garret are talking about. Hopefully Nick Rowe will revisit that since I asked him the same thing: he implied that was a good question, but put it off to a future post.

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    3. Ok Tom if you want to take him at his word that's your choice. I don't take him entirely at his word. I still don't see what the reason is that a liberal would think that fiscal policy can't work.

      No doubt Sumner hopes most readers are like you rather than me. I think a liberal Monetarist while in theory is possible in reality I don't buy it.

      "But he's saying here it's possible to separate those things. I do have to take him at his word there."

      No you don't. It's your choice to do so. That's fine but that doesnt mean that everyone has to do that. I just don't buy it. David Glasner is comparably more flexible but Sumner is very clear in his own mind in what he wants to do. I think once you accept his theory you accept suppy side and deregulation and fiscal austerity and the whole Republican fiscal agenda whatever you tell yourself.

      I think Sumner is probably the most brilliant Neoliberal warrior I've seen but I'm not deceived that he is a NL-as he says-and this is not an accidental position.

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  3. Notice that he ascribes a political agenda to Keynesians but claims he's free of one. A little convenient

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