I've stated many times that I do think you can't just let Sumner get away with all this ball spiking without engaging at all-mostly because more people will believe his disinformation. Sumner likes to think that he's part of an economic elite where nobody who isn't part of this elite doesn't even have an opinion worth anything. Yet he's never heard of confirmation bias evidently as all cats are grey and every piece of economic data proves MM right.
I admit I was very pleasantly surprised to receive this comment by Mike Norman himself on the latest bout of Sumner's gloating:
"Here's the response: Total government spending in 2013 has been higher than 2012. The Keynesian model has not failed anyone. Please see Daily Treasury Statement for FY 2013 ending Sep 30. Here. So despite the sequester and tax increases, total spending has still been higher than 2012. I'll just give you the numbers: FY 2012 $4.18T vs FY 2013: $4.2T."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/11/sumner-is-at-it-again-after-latest-job.html?showComment=1384047284134#c1623075796450175322
Again, very gratified that Mike dropped by to leave a comment on my humble blog. I was further gratified to see that he got these numbers from that man himself-Warren Mosler. Exciting stuff.
http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2013/11/mike-sax-sumner-is-at-it-again-after.html
I had started this piece with a plea for engagement and nice to see it's forthcoming.
"I guess it falls to me to have to respond as no other Keynesians of any stripe seem to want to take a whack. He's clearly all but begging for a response."
We got some response. I'd say for anyone out there who has some good data and analysis in this debate to come forward and let us hear about it. This is going to have to be a team effort if we really want to get at the truth of the economic and monetary world. I by no means have all the answers though I do think one thing I do is often ask the right questions-or at least I'm asking questions.
I will say though that I' m not sure of what to make of the idea that govt spending is up this year. Colin Roche has been declaring it's the opposite.
http://pragcap.com/what-if-barack-the-government-job-slayer-had-been-more-like-reagan-the-government-job-creator
Haven't we seen a drop in govt spending over the last 4 years starting in 2010? Of course, part of it is that the biggest govt job losses have been at the state level. Still how has spending gone up with the sequester? I trust Mike and Mr. Mosler's data but how exactly did this happen?
I admit I was very pleasantly surprised to receive this comment by Mike Norman himself on the latest bout of Sumner's gloating:
"Here's the response: Total government spending in 2013 has been higher than 2012. The Keynesian model has not failed anyone. Please see Daily Treasury Statement for FY 2013 ending Sep 30. Here. So despite the sequester and tax increases, total spending has still been higher than 2012. I'll just give you the numbers: FY 2012 $4.18T vs FY 2013: $4.2T."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/11/sumner-is-at-it-again-after-latest-job.html?showComment=1384047284134#c1623075796450175322
Again, very gratified that Mike dropped by to leave a comment on my humble blog. I was further gratified to see that he got these numbers from that man himself-Warren Mosler. Exciting stuff.
http://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/2013/11/mike-sax-sumner-is-at-it-again-after.html
I had started this piece with a plea for engagement and nice to see it's forthcoming.
"I guess it falls to me to have to respond as no other Keynesians of any stripe seem to want to take a whack. He's clearly all but begging for a response."
We got some response. I'd say for anyone out there who has some good data and analysis in this debate to come forward and let us hear about it. This is going to have to be a team effort if we really want to get at the truth of the economic and monetary world. I by no means have all the answers though I do think one thing I do is often ask the right questions-or at least I'm asking questions.
I will say though that I' m not sure of what to make of the idea that govt spending is up this year. Colin Roche has been declaring it's the opposite.
http://pragcap.com/what-if-barack-the-government-job-slayer-had-been-more-like-reagan-the-government-job-creator
Haven't we seen a drop in govt spending over the last 4 years starting in 2010? Of course, part of it is that the biggest govt job losses have been at the state level. Still how has spending gone up with the sequester? I trust Mike and Mr. Mosler's data but how exactly did this happen?
Mike,
ReplyDeleteThe sequester cuts are cuts in the 'budgeted' numbers... Mike N. is tracking the ACTUAL withdrawals from the Treasury's General Account in a cash basis...
The 'budget' is more or less just a 'plan' of govt spending that currently Paul Ryan puts together in his committee .... what the Congress goes on to appropriate and then more importantly the RATE of govt spending of these appropriations doesnt correlate to what is/was budgeted... so to find out what the govt is actually doing as far as spending (both CGI and xfers) you have to look at the Treasury's General Account statement in a cash basis... watching the TGA is like watching the govt sector's 'checking account' imo it is what really matters as far as 'govt spending'... not many people other than Mike N look at it that I know of.... if people look at the 'budget' they are not looking at what the govt sector is actually doing...
rsp,
Thanks for the explanation Matt, very appreciated. However, this doesn't mean the sequester hasn't gone into effect does it? Becuase Keynesians like me are always saying that deep cuts during a recession are a mistake and that we've seen to many cuts-particularly at the state level.
ReplyDeleteDoes this point about TGA contradict this?
I can imagine a conservative hearing this and saying "So now you Keynesians are saying there has been no austerity? Can you guys make up your minds and then come back?!'
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteYes we have the sequester but remember we also have not a budget that has been passed either.... So they are spending at a rate based on some sort of function of previous appropriation.
They could absolutely be spending more and IMO this would lead to better outcomes.... They are only spending at rate while a bit more than last FY, is still inadequate to supply enough savings and foment higher output/employment levels...
Rsp