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Saturday, August 11, 2012

Christmas in August: Paul Ryan is Romney VP! Game Changer?

     I got a late start today on the computer. I was out running the track here at the Oceanside High School here in Long Island, NY. I just got in about 30 minutes ago.

     I can't take it. This is just too sweet. It's Christmas and it's August and it's the best of all worlds. Wow. I never thought he would do it. I figured that Romney's own timid instincts would, in this case, at least, do him well.

    He would avoid this. But no. He's gone all in. There is no longer any way to deny it. And that's why I love this move. It's the right one. It's actually honest even. Which again is so unlike Willard Mitt Romney-even his name isn't honest. We call him Mitt but that's only his middle name.

   Yet he has done it. We now have total clarity. This election is about one thing and one thing only. Well it's about two things. First of all, Mitt Romney needs to release his tax returns. I look forward to the questions he will get about how many years of taxes he takes from Paul Ryan.

   But really, that's part of the whole narrative. The whole narrative is taxes, both Romney's personally and his tax plan. Which is a big old fail.

   For more on that see Krugman http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/10/culture-of-fraud/

   Greg Mankiw and Glen Hubbard ought to be sued for malpractice.

   But this choice of Paul Ryan gives us clarity. People can't doubt what a vote for Mitt Romney means now. It's a vote for the Paul Ryan budget. Yes, Romney had already endorsed it. But there's a difference between endorsing it with "modifiers" no less, and wearing it around his neck like a broach for the rest of the election.

   Until now, some independents, fence sitters, and the rest of the "mushy middle" could deny what voting for Romney means. They could say "You know I like him, he seems ok. I don't think he's so conservative, he's just acting to please the Tea Party. When he's in office he'll govern like a moderate."

   No one can say he's a moderate anymore. He used to be one but that was before he started running for President 6 years ago. He is the most Right wing candidate we've had in 80 years-I'm going back to Coolidge.

   No one has ever questioned the New Deal before. Not in principle at least. He has vowed to block grant Medicare out to the states. Just check the Ryan budget.

   What this does teach us it that Romney has sold his soul to the Right. They own him. He is their bitch. While his own personal tendencies may have been more moderate, he has abdicated his own tendencies.

   He is a creature of the Right. What this also shows is that in the end he was so lacking in confidence about holding his own base that he could not resist them. My guess is he wanted Portman. However, once the groundswell got started there was no way he could resist it.

  Why? Because they never have trusted him. There are those in the media who talked about the need for Romney to have his "Sistah Souljah" moment. Now it should be clear that this hope is vain.

  But a candidate who has to at this late date pander this much to his base just to lock them up has very poor general election prospects.

  What he has done is what my buddy Motor City Liberal pointed out. Romney has basically given up the rest of the country to win the 35% that is his base.

   I've argued with Morgan Warstler about this for months. He insists that Obama is in terrible trouble because he didn't "do a Clinton."

   I tell him he's dead wrong. He's too stuck in the last 30 years. He believes that in 1980 the country became more conservative. No they didn't. However, the Republicans were able to win by attacking some of the low hanging fruit. They've got all that now. As it turns out, "Welfare Reform" of the 90s is the conservative nadir.

   I still believe that the GOP hit a top in 2004. At that point they had taken all the low hanging fruit. Now the only thing left is to truly take on the New Deal directly. In 2005, Bush with both Houses of Congress wanted to pass Social Security privatization but had to table it as it lacked the votes-again, GOP Congress, but the political capital wasn't there  for the GOP.

  Next up was Ryan, the Bold One. I say Ryan is the end of the line. That's what this election is. Do the American people vote down the New Deal? I say no. Not even close.

  For once Romney made an honest ideological move. The move of course was done however out of his usual cravenness-he can't say no to the Right.

  It does give us clarity. This clarity will make it a lead pipe cinch for the Obama team. Romney made an honest ideological move, but politically he has cooked his own goose.

  The real beauty of it-for me-is that while he now has given himself ownership for the Ryan budget-that is to say Medicare privatization-he actually gains nothing in terms of the electoral college.

  It seemed to me that Portman would have been ideal at least on the ideological premise that your Veep should give you a chance to pick up a state. Ohio is a must win for Romney-no Republican has ever been elected President without winning Ohio.

  Portman plausibly could have gotten him some gains that-depending on how close it was-maybe could push him over the top. Rubio as well might have been a nod both for Florida and Latinos. It doesn't hurt that Rubio is at least seen as a little moderate on immigrant rights.

  Any chance to go to the Center on anything Romney has rebuffed. Ryan won't be enough to pick up Wisconsin. Who exactly is going to be more likely to vote for Romney because of Ryan? The answer is clear. It's just insurance for the base, to make sure they come out on November 7. It does nothing for the independents-indeed what recent polls suggest is that there are from Romney's perspective distressingly few undecideds left.

  That poll by CNN in particular was very troubling. While it wasn't the only poll he trailed by 7 in, it was 52-45-which is a big difference from Reuters who had him down 49-42. That still leaves 9 percent, but CNN left only 3.

  So this will give him no meaningful jump in any state and will not entice independents-my guess is it will scare away some independents. This simply locks in his base. Yeah, no doubt about it. This is another Game Changer.

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