I'm almost tempted to say that after yesterday's fizz out where they lost at home 27-24 at home to the previously winless Bucs. It turns out it's a good thing I broke my rule of never betting on the Giants as they were the team to put me up $900 dollars on the weekend.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/09/giants-45-redskins-14-why-rules-are.html
I was pretty unlucky yesterday. My picks for the Colts and Charges were spot on as they easily covered but the Steelers let Tampa hang around all day and steal the win late. As it was I needed an 8 point Steeler win as I bet the spread. I had a feeling this was not the way to go-the Steelers are not really great at covering spreads as they tend to play close games and don't put that many teams away.
Then the Eagles my second underdog of the weekend-after getting the Giants right as a dog-took a 21-10 lead in San Francisco but then let the Niners dominate the rest of the game coming from behind 26-21. So yesterday was a pure wash with me being up for the week purely on the Giants win.
At this point in the season I have a few thoughts. One is that the Bengals may have gone to the next level this year. We know they're a powerhouse at home-they were 8-0 least year both straight up and against the spread and at this point I think you take them in any home game against anyone probably including the Seahawks or Denver.
What really impresses me is that win on the road in Baltimore in week 1 which suggests maybe they will be able to win a few different stadiums than their own this year. It's also amazing to me that this team allows just 11 points a game-this is hardly the Bengals' reputation. Usually you think of the Bengals as a team with a high octane offense whose defense then gives up points as fast as QB Andy Dalton and company score them.
A good test for them will be next week in New England. This will be very interesting both for how the Bengals handle this and how the Pats do. If you go by the past, this should be a slam dunk taking New England but my sense is that the Bengals may be a little better this year and the Pats may be a bit worse. They had a really bad loss week 1 against Miami seeing a double digit halftime lead dissipating into a double digit loss. Then last week they barely outlasted the Raiders 16-9 where Brady seemed not able to get too much going.
So those are the first two teams I wonder if they haven't undergone something of a 'sea change'-the Bengals taking a leg up this year the Pats moving a leg down. Last the Saints. The book says you play the Saints exactly like the Bengals-take them at home bet against them on the road. They're bad 1-3 start can to be an extent chalked up to playing 3 of 4 on the road to start. However, even considering that they've been on the road they've looked awful and they were just riddled in Dallas last night. I knew the Cowboys were the choice but couldn't bring myself to bet on them. A bridge too far as it were.
Even their win at home-a 20-9 win vs. the Peterson-less Vikings-was not terribly impressive. I'm wondering if this team is going to take a step back this year. I mean they should be seen as a lock to go against on the road but maybe even less trustworthy at home. I mean they're favored by 11 points vs. the Bucs this week. Normally that should be a given. They've outscored Tampa 83-7 the last 2 years at the Superdome. I do think they'll take it and probably cover-they will be hungry for a big win after the Dallas debacle but if they fail to cover here, you have to think that they are in fact taking a step back this year.
So the Bengals are-maybe-a little better this year and the Saints and Pats are maybe a little worse though I feel a little more conviction on the first two theories and I think that we need to see more to verify any of these theories. A win for the Bengals in NE would be a big boon to the to premises on both those teams for opposite reasons while if the Saints fail to cover at home against Tampa with the Bucs due for a let down after a rare win and the Saints needing a big statement after such a bad outing in Dallas, you begin to think that they really have take a step back this year.
The other teams I'm thinking about this week? The Giants over Atlanta-if my Big Blue are going to be a factor this year they absolutely need a win here and the Eagles over the Rams-if the Eagles fail here then I think that no matter how good they may look on paper with Nick Foles, they are the same old up and down Eagles.
Then I have the Chargers over the Jets and the Seahawks over the Redskins. The Chargers are another team that might be for real this year but I'm not wholly sold on till I see more. A lopsided win here over a team they should blowout would be a step in the right direction-like they had this week against the Jaguars.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/09/giants-45-redskins-14-why-rules-are.html
I was pretty unlucky yesterday. My picks for the Colts and Charges were spot on as they easily covered but the Steelers let Tampa hang around all day and steal the win late. As it was I needed an 8 point Steeler win as I bet the spread. I had a feeling this was not the way to go-the Steelers are not really great at covering spreads as they tend to play close games and don't put that many teams away.
Then the Eagles my second underdog of the weekend-after getting the Giants right as a dog-took a 21-10 lead in San Francisco but then let the Niners dominate the rest of the game coming from behind 26-21. So yesterday was a pure wash with me being up for the week purely on the Giants win.
At this point in the season I have a few thoughts. One is that the Bengals may have gone to the next level this year. We know they're a powerhouse at home-they were 8-0 least year both straight up and against the spread and at this point I think you take them in any home game against anyone probably including the Seahawks or Denver.
What really impresses me is that win on the road in Baltimore in week 1 which suggests maybe they will be able to win a few different stadiums than their own this year. It's also amazing to me that this team allows just 11 points a game-this is hardly the Bengals' reputation. Usually you think of the Bengals as a team with a high octane offense whose defense then gives up points as fast as QB Andy Dalton and company score them.
A good test for them will be next week in New England. This will be very interesting both for how the Bengals handle this and how the Pats do. If you go by the past, this should be a slam dunk taking New England but my sense is that the Bengals may be a little better this year and the Pats may be a bit worse. They had a really bad loss week 1 against Miami seeing a double digit halftime lead dissipating into a double digit loss. Then last week they barely outlasted the Raiders 16-9 where Brady seemed not able to get too much going.
So those are the first two teams I wonder if they haven't undergone something of a 'sea change'-the Bengals taking a leg up this year the Pats moving a leg down. Last the Saints. The book says you play the Saints exactly like the Bengals-take them at home bet against them on the road. They're bad 1-3 start can to be an extent chalked up to playing 3 of 4 on the road to start. However, even considering that they've been on the road they've looked awful and they were just riddled in Dallas last night. I knew the Cowboys were the choice but couldn't bring myself to bet on them. A bridge too far as it were.
Even their win at home-a 20-9 win vs. the Peterson-less Vikings-was not terribly impressive. I'm wondering if this team is going to take a step back this year. I mean they should be seen as a lock to go against on the road but maybe even less trustworthy at home. I mean they're favored by 11 points vs. the Bucs this week. Normally that should be a given. They've outscored Tampa 83-7 the last 2 years at the Superdome. I do think they'll take it and probably cover-they will be hungry for a big win after the Dallas debacle but if they fail to cover here, you have to think that they are in fact taking a step back this year.
So the Bengals are-maybe-a little better this year and the Saints and Pats are maybe a little worse though I feel a little more conviction on the first two theories and I think that we need to see more to verify any of these theories. A win for the Bengals in NE would be a big boon to the to premises on both those teams for opposite reasons while if the Saints fail to cover at home against Tampa with the Bucs due for a let down after a rare win and the Saints needing a big statement after such a bad outing in Dallas, you begin to think that they really have take a step back this year.
The other teams I'm thinking about this week? The Giants over Atlanta-if my Big Blue are going to be a factor this year they absolutely need a win here and the Eagles over the Rams-if the Eagles fail here then I think that no matter how good they may look on paper with Nick Foles, they are the same old up and down Eagles.
Then I have the Chargers over the Jets and the Seahawks over the Redskins. The Chargers are another team that might be for real this year but I'm not wholly sold on till I see more. A lopsided win here over a team they should blowout would be a step in the right direction-like they had this week against the Jaguars.
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