The media seems to be buying into the idea that Wisconsin could change the game on both sides. While the two leading candidates are expected to lose, it's at all clear this is a game changer on either side.
For Bernie it clear won't be. As for the GOP side. people have been very over zealous in declaring Trump finished or that the end has begun.
Demographically both Bernie and Cruz are expected to win the state. And it's actually a much bigger problem for them if they were to lose than either frontrunner if the expected happens and they win.
The race doesn't change because Cruz or Sanders win, but it does change for the worse for them if either were to lose. However, margin will be interesting.
Presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are looking to extend their parties' races for the White House with decisive wins in Wisconsin on Tuesday.
A win by Cruz over Donald Trump would puncture the GOP presidential front-runner’s perceived strength in the Rust Belt, and in open primaries where Democrats and independents can choose to vote for a GOP candidate.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/275143-cruz-sanders-seek-game-changing-wins-in-wisconsin
I disagree. Wisconsin always favored Cruz. It's actually notable how close the race remains according to the poling averages he's up just by under 5 points. If anything, it's seemed to get closer since the media started writing Trump's obituary last week.
For Bernie it clear won't be. As for the GOP side. people have been very over zealous in declaring Trump finished or that the end has begun.
Demographically both Bernie and Cruz are expected to win the state. And it's actually a much bigger problem for them if they were to lose than either frontrunner if the expected happens and they win.
The race doesn't change because Cruz or Sanders win, but it does change for the worse for them if either were to lose. However, margin will be interesting.
Presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are looking to extend their parties' races for the White House with decisive wins in Wisconsin on Tuesday.
A win by Cruz over Donald Trump would puncture the GOP presidential front-runner’s perceived strength in the Rust Belt, and in open primaries where Democrats and independents can choose to vote for a GOP candidate.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/275143-cruz-sanders-seek-game-changing-wins-in-wisconsin
I disagree. Wisconsin always favored Cruz. It's actually notable how close the race remains according to the poling averages he's up just by under 5 points. If anything, it's seemed to get closer since the media started writing Trump's obituary last week.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html
"Sanders is hoping to build momentum ahead of the April 19 battle with Democratic front-runnerHillary Clinton in New York, a delegate-rich state where Trump and Clinton will be favored. A win there would give him six victories in the last seven state contests."
"To even talk about mometum is to buy into Bernie's voodoo delegate math. There is no momentum. There are votes and delegates. This is what Obama proved in 2008."
"A top pollster in Wisconsin, Charles Franklin, who runs the Marquette Law School poll, said he expects both Cruz and Sanders to win, though he believes the Democratic race will be tighter."
Marquette had Bernie up by 4. A 4 point Bernie win in Wisconsin is a loss.
"Sanders is hoping to build momentum ahead of the April 19 battle with Democratic front-runnerHillary Clinton in New York, a delegate-rich state where Trump and Clinton will be favored. A win there would give him six victories in the last seven state contests."
"To even talk about mometum is to buy into Bernie's voodoo delegate math. There is no momentum. There are votes and delegates. This is what Obama proved in 2008."
"A top pollster in Wisconsin, Charles Franklin, who runs the Marquette Law School poll, said he expects both Cruz and Sanders to win, though he believes the Democratic race will be tighter."
Marquette had Bernie up by 4. A 4 point Bernie win in Wisconsin is a loss.
Right now the betting odds have become a lot more bullish on both Bernie and Cruz. What this suggests to me is it's overreacting to the 'momentum' story.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
UPDATE: NBC News takes a similar take on the stakes in Wisconsin
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-catch-day-wisconsin-n550856?cid=eml_pol_20160405
UPDATE: NBC News takes a similar take on the stakes in Wisconsin
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-catch-day-wisconsin-n550856?cid=eml_pol_20160405
No comments:
Post a Comment