The conventional wisdom favors him in the state. Rightly so, as it's a fairly white state with a lot of white progs. Still, the numbers overall are not positive to Bernie.
Currently in the RCP averages he leads by only 0.6 percent which amounts a a tossup.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html
We don't really know who will win, but it seems plausible to imagine a small Bernie victory. The state Marquette poll did show him with a four point lead, 49-45. Nate Silver and friends finds that poll very credible.
Overall, the recent polls show three with Bernie leading by six, five, and four, respectively, with two with Hillary leading by six.
So in other words whoever wins it will be close. A six point Bernie win is basically a loss as it nets him just six more pledged delegates than her and then she quite possibly wins most of the super delegates. He currently trails by 263 delegates.
In other news, the betting markets have become much more bearish on Trump the last few days. He has fallen from 70 percent probability of winning the primary to just 50 percent. His chances of winning the Presidency are down from 20 percent to just over 12 percent.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
Ted Cruz's chances of winning the primary have now rocketed to 26 percent. After South Carolina he had dropped to very low single digits.
The meme that Trump is done is being amplified in the media. Time will tell. This won't be the first time this has been dead wrong. I'm not at all clear that the Trump base has heard anything that would make them bolt.
I think if anything the Corey Lewandowski thing may help him as it shows him being loyal rather than offering him up as a sacrificial lamb like Cruz did to his loyal right hand man, Rick Tyler.
The abortion thing has opened up a can of worms. but the real loser here might be the prolife movement itself, that Trump oh so clumsily unmasked.
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