There are a few new polls out today, both by CBS.
1. In Wisconsin Bernie has a very small two point lead, 49-47.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html
As I explained earlier, a two point Bernie win or a two point Hillary win are basically the same: a Bernie loss.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/some-bad-news-for-bernie-in-wisconsin.html
As far back as he is in delegates, he needs a big win. A two point win or even a six point win isn't going to do it.
2. In NY, Hillary is up 53-43. Some interesting findings in it.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/306816571/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-New-York-April-2016
A). 52 percent do want more liberal policies than Obama, with 41 percent wanting to continue them and seven percent wanting them to be less liberal.
Overall, then a small minority seem to want policies more liberal than Obama, 52-48. Not a huge difference but in theory this could favor Bernie a little-he does better in states that think Obama wasn't liberal enough than those who think he was just right-but this is not a huge plurality, it's not much more than a split.
B). However, on the question of trade, 34 percent think it costs jobs but 32 percent actually thinks it creates jobs, 16 percent think it has no effect and 18 percent aren't sure.
As a New Yorker, I take some pride on this as I love that almost 20 percent are modest enough to admit they don't know for sure. I mean who can have such confidence on this question?
I believe, the 16 percent that think it has no effect are right. Now, it's impact on wages is another question. But in any case, this suggest that hitting trade is not the win Bernie had assumed it was in the Midwest. It's not clear that it was as she ended up blowing him out in Ohio, etc.
Another interesting tidbit: While those under 30 favor Bernie by a lot, as usual, 42 percent of them say trade actually creates jobs, with only 32 percent saying it hurts them.
C). Here's the best part in the poll. Only 47 percent want another debate, 53 percent of New Yorkers believe we've had enough. Amen!
So while Bernie has been very pushy about another debate-on his terms as he keeps rejecting her suggestions- there seems not to be any huge pressure on her to have one.
The under 30s want another debate 66-34, but no other age groups have a plurality which wants another one.
D). On race, Bernie leads among whites 51-44, but she leads among blacks 65-31, and among Latinos, 75-19, so a particularly strong demographic for her in NY.
E). As usual, Hillary doesn't do well with those under 30. She wins every other age group but what you find for some reason is she does really well with 30-44, the next age group up, a little less well with 45-64, but then really well again with those over 65.
I'm exactly 44, now, but I'm sure my view won't' change in May when I become 45. But it does seem that she always does very well in my age group. We Gen Xers usually have a lot of admiration for her.
1. In Wisconsin Bernie has a very small two point lead, 49-47.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html
As I explained earlier, a two point Bernie win or a two point Hillary win are basically the same: a Bernie loss.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/some-bad-news-for-bernie-in-wisconsin.html
As far back as he is in delegates, he needs a big win. A two point win or even a six point win isn't going to do it.
2. In NY, Hillary is up 53-43. Some interesting findings in it.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/306816571/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-New-York-April-2016
A). 52 percent do want more liberal policies than Obama, with 41 percent wanting to continue them and seven percent wanting them to be less liberal.
Overall, then a small minority seem to want policies more liberal than Obama, 52-48. Not a huge difference but in theory this could favor Bernie a little-he does better in states that think Obama wasn't liberal enough than those who think he was just right-but this is not a huge plurality, it's not much more than a split.
B). However, on the question of trade, 34 percent think it costs jobs but 32 percent actually thinks it creates jobs, 16 percent think it has no effect and 18 percent aren't sure.
As a New Yorker, I take some pride on this as I love that almost 20 percent are modest enough to admit they don't know for sure. I mean who can have such confidence on this question?
I believe, the 16 percent that think it has no effect are right. Now, it's impact on wages is another question. But in any case, this suggest that hitting trade is not the win Bernie had assumed it was in the Midwest. It's not clear that it was as she ended up blowing him out in Ohio, etc.
Another interesting tidbit: While those under 30 favor Bernie by a lot, as usual, 42 percent of them say trade actually creates jobs, with only 32 percent saying it hurts them.
C). Here's the best part in the poll. Only 47 percent want another debate, 53 percent of New Yorkers believe we've had enough. Amen!
So while Bernie has been very pushy about another debate-on his terms as he keeps rejecting her suggestions- there seems not to be any huge pressure on her to have one.
The under 30s want another debate 66-34, but no other age groups have a plurality which wants another one.
D). On race, Bernie leads among whites 51-44, but she leads among blacks 65-31, and among Latinos, 75-19, so a particularly strong demographic for her in NY.
E). As usual, Hillary doesn't do well with those under 30. She wins every other age group but what you find for some reason is she does really well with 30-44, the next age group up, a little less well with 45-64, but then really well again with those over 65.
I'm exactly 44, now, but I'm sure my view won't' change in May when I become 45. But it does seem that she always does very well in my age group. We Gen Xers usually have a lot of admiration for her.
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