It's a shame really. Last night was almost a perfect night.
On the GOP side, Trump showed that the pundits were again premature in declaring him having peaked after Saturday's so-so night. It was not a dreadful night-Nate Silver had rather absurdly given Trump a 2 out of 10 night and Rubio a 1 out of 10 night.
The idea that Trump's night was almost as bad as Rubio's' was preposterous. Last night proved that.
"Either way, this result will send a shock wave through the press. Heck, as a member of the press, you might be able to tell how surprised I am. This will likely lead to increased press coverage of the Democratic race, which Sanders desperately needs to be competitive next Tuesday and beyond."
"Sanders must rack up big wins and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind hisFiveThirtyEight delegate targets. That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy."
"Sanders, however, can breathe a deep sigh of relief that all the states in the Deep South have already voted. He can hope that tonight’s Michigan win will help propel him to victory or at least make him more competitive in states with large delegate prizes left like California, Florida, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania. We’ll see if it does."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/
As Harry Enten says, in the early going at least, the media will focus on momentum over math. Even though she is still very likely to be the nominee, this won't be the focus for the next few days. On March 8 we will see how Ohio and Illinois goes.
That will decide whether this will be seen as a blip or game changer.
On the GOP side, Trump showed that the pundits were again premature in declaring him having peaked after Saturday's so-so night. It was not a dreadful night-Nate Silver had rather absurdly given Trump a 2 out of 10 night and Rubio a 1 out of 10 night.
The idea that Trump's night was almost as bad as Rubio's' was preposterous. Last night proved that.
Republican front-runner Donald Trump, meanwhile, regained any momentum lost last weekend against challenger Ted Cruz, sweeping to convincing victories in Michigan and Mississippi while sending a message to the Republican establishment to jump on board — or get out of the way.
Cruz was projected to pick up a win in the Idaho GOP primary, while Trump was projected to easily win the Hawaii Republican caucus.
But Trump's earlier victories were more valuable in terms of delegates. And Tuesday's results may also seal the fate of Marco Rubio, who appeared once again to finish the night failing to gain any delegates.
Cruz appeared to have beaten John Kasich for second place in Michigan by approximately 8,000 votes. Kasich is counting on a win in his home state of Ohio next week to salvage his campaign."
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/09/sanders-upsets-clinton-in-michigan-trump-notches-2-big-wins.html?intcmp=hpbt1
Trump had a great night and Rubio's was just dreadful, finishing in fourth in both Mississippi and Michigan-in Mississippi he got just 5 percent of the vote.
This should make a great night for a Trump Democrat like me. However, the Dem primaries were something of a snag.
Hillary won big in Mississippi there, no surprise. But Bernie did upset her in Michigan with a narrow win which is shocking considering that the polls had her up by an average of 20 points.
There are two ways to look at this: momentum or math.
1. On math, it was actually a great night for HRC as she actually comes through the night with almost 40 more delegates. She crushed him in Miss, 32-5 with three delegates outstanding and as for Michigan his narrow win under two points only got him a gain of 7 delegates and when you factor the super delegates she actually won the delegate count in Michigan 68-65.
2. But on momentum, the story in the early going is going to be that Michigan is a big upset and is the first big, diverse state he won. The exit polls say he won 3 of 10 among AAs.
"The question I am asking myself now is whether this means the polls are off in other Midwest states that are holding open primaries. I’m talking specifically about Illinois and Ohio, both of which vote next Tuesday. The FiveThirtyEight polling average in Illinois gives Clinton a 37 percentage point lead, while the average in Ohio gives her a 20 percentage point lead. If Michigan was just a fluke (which is possible), then tonight will be forgotten soon enough. If, however, pollsters are missing something more fundamental about the electorate, then the Ohio and Illinois primaries could be a lot closer than expected.""Either way, this result will send a shock wave through the press. Heck, as a member of the press, you might be able to tell how surprised I am. This will likely lead to increased press coverage of the Democratic race, which Sanders desperately needs to be competitive next Tuesday and beyond."
"Sanders must rack up big wins and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind hisFiveThirtyEight delegate targets. That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy."
"Sanders, however, can breathe a deep sigh of relief that all the states in the Deep South have already voted. He can hope that tonight’s Michigan win will help propel him to victory or at least make him more competitive in states with large delegate prizes left like California, Florida, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania. We’ll see if it does."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/
As Harry Enten says, in the early going at least, the media will focus on momentum over math. Even though she is still very likely to be the nominee, this won't be the focus for the next few days. On March 8 we will see how Ohio and Illinois goes.
That will decide whether this will be seen as a blip or game changer.
So even though the math says it was a great night and even though she is just that much closer to winning, this won't be the narrative for the next few days.
So Hillary lovers, brace yourselves for that.
Two positive ways to look at it.
1. Obama also lost Michigan, so in that sense, she's still traveling the winning Obama path to victory.
2. Despite the upset, the election betting odds having changed much. HRC is still over a 90 percent favorite to win the nomination. Her odds of winning are down just a modest amount of 2.5 percent to 3 percent.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
No comments:
Post a Comment