As I argued in my last piece, there are two ways of reading the Dem primary results last night.
1. Momentum
2. Math.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-good-news-and-bad-news-in-last.html
The momentum story is going to be that Bernie proved he can win in a big, diverse state-the exit polls show he got 30 percent of the AA vote.
Of course his campaign is calling Michigan a game changer and extrapolating that this means the Illinois and Ohio polls that show HRC way ahead are also wrong. The media is going to be at least sympathetic to this message for the next week.
Until: next Tuesday with five more states on the line. Then we will see if it is a game changer or a fluke.
Of course, the other way to look at it is that she actually added 40 more delegates to her lead. She now has an almost 650 delegate lead and is over 50 percent of the way to the 2382 delegates need to win: 1215-466.
But the media isn't going to focus on this for now. But that doesn't mean it's not the fact. As Harry Enten points out, he needs some big wins fast. Not just 2 point wins.
"Sanders must rack up big wins and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind hisFiveThirtyEight delegate targets. That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy."
Another way to look at it is to remember that Obama also lost Michigan in 2008. In that sense she remains on his path. She won Iowa and lost NH. She got huge wins in the South. She lost Michigan.
One other piece of 2008 Obama campaign wisdom is helpful now for Hillary supporters to remember: Don't wet the bed.
1. Momentum
2. Math.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-good-news-and-bad-news-in-last.html
The momentum story is going to be that Bernie proved he can win in a big, diverse state-the exit polls show he got 30 percent of the AA vote.
Of course his campaign is calling Michigan a game changer and extrapolating that this means the Illinois and Ohio polls that show HRC way ahead are also wrong. The media is going to be at least sympathetic to this message for the next week.
Until: next Tuesday with five more states on the line. Then we will see if it is a game changer or a fluke.
Of course, the other way to look at it is that she actually added 40 more delegates to her lead. She now has an almost 650 delegate lead and is over 50 percent of the way to the 2382 delegates need to win: 1215-466.
But the media isn't going to focus on this for now. But that doesn't mean it's not the fact. As Harry Enten points out, he needs some big wins fast. Not just 2 point wins.
"Sanders must rack up big wins and fast. Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind hisFiveThirtyEight delegate targets. That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy."
Another way to look at it is to remember that Obama also lost Michigan in 2008. In that sense she remains on his path. She won Iowa and lost NH. She got huge wins in the South. She lost Michigan.
One other piece of 2008 Obama campaign wisdom is helpful now for Hillary supporters to remember: Don't wet the bed.
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