This is a crucial point. Romney has effectively beaten a tactical retreat with the selection of Paul Ryan to round out his ticket. He's gone from trying to win on biography and being the 'I'm not Obama' candidate to deciding that he has to run on something more than biography especially as that biography turned out to be a great weapon to use against him-talk about a double edged sword.
Here's Matt Dowd-a veteran George W. Bush strategist:
"The curtain is just rising on the introduction of Mitt Romney's Paul Ryan Vice Presidential play and we have already heard from many corners about his potential strengths and weaknesses. I would like to focus on something more fundamental that this pick tells us. Mitt Romney and his campaign have decided strategically that this election is a base election and it is about motivating Republicans and conservatives and not about persuading swing voters."
"This Ryan pick isn't going to help close the gap with Latino voters. This isn't going to persuade suburban, middle class moms to support the ticket. This pick is an acknowledgement on the Romney campaign's part that they see their only path to victory as motivating their base."
"We have seen some evidence of this effort to motivate the base from the tactics of the Romney campaign over the last few months, but I think this pick is a clear signal that this is their strategy for the remaining days ahead. And I don't think they will be subtle any more about it. I think you will see analysis from them that they can win this election without increasing support among Latinos or by having progressive social appeals to suburban moms."
"I think they have decided that a lesson learned about base motivation from Bush's 2004 race is applicable in 2012, and it isn't surprising since many of their key staff worked on that campaign."
"Time will tell whether this strategic choice is a good one. Many campaigns that have repeated strategies from previous winning campaigns have gone on to lose because the political environmental factors of the country had changed."
http://abcnews.go.com/US/paul-ryan-motivate-conservative-base-dowd/story?id=16984345
What they've basically done is write off 65% of the country in favor of the 35% of the country that's tea party. So the goal will be to keep them as enthusiastic as possible.
This has actually over the last 20 years become the Republican Presidential strategy. In the period between 1968-92 they dominated Presidential politics-while the Democrats continued to dominate the Congressional races.
In that 24 year period the GOP won 5 out of 6 national elections, the last 4 from 1972-1992 in spectacular blowouts where they won each with at least 432 electoral votes and 41 states including a 49-1 annihilation in 1972 and again in 1984.
What is clear though is that with the election of Clinton in 1992, the electoral math did change. Beginning with Clinton's 368-170 blowout of Bush in 1992, the Dems have won 3 out of 5 Presidential elections each with about two thirds of the electoral votes.
Bush Jr. broke through with two wins that were pencil thin margins-indeed some to this day question their validity...
What has happened is that as the GOP has continued to go further to the Right they have kissed of the independents and mainstream and relied solely on the base. There aren't any Reagan Democrats in their coalition anymore or any Centrists or independents.
It worked for Bush but the math is very exacting. The path to victory for the GOP is much tighter than for the Democrats-beginning in 1992.
What I can't help but think is that this has done nothing to improve Governor Romney's standing in any important swing state. I think all Republican strategists concede that Florida is must win. The latest poll before the pick had shown Obama opening up a 6 point lead.
Obviously with the large number of seniors in Florida it's open to doubt that this improves his chances in Florida.
What you are hearing is that the Ryan pick is going to put Wisconsin in play. This I strongly doubt. While there was a mild bump for Romney in Wisconsin immediately after the Walker victory 2 months ago, since then every poll has shown Obama with a 5 to 8 point lead. Is Ryan going to really add 6 to 9 points for Romney in Wisconsin?
So I think like Dowd says the political factors change and I don't think they're there for Romney to win the election on base alone. However, since 1992 that's been the GOP strategy-their only hope.
P.S. While I can only make an educated guess here, I strongly feel that the Romney campaign is embellishing the choice of Romney to give it the dignity it otherwise would sorely lack.
You're hearing that Romney and Ryan "instantly clicked" and that Romney had already made up his mind on his way back from his trip-that in case you didn't hear about it was something of a disaster they say.
It just so happens that this would be just before the conservatives started demanding Ryan. Then we hear that last Sunday before the Milwaukee shootings he was going name Ryan.
My guess is that Romney really doesn't want the impression that he was simply reacting to events on the ground-the struggling campaign being hammered by the Democrats, the flagging poll numbers. Bain Capital, the tax returns he refused to release.
I'm fairly skeptical that the pieces by Bill Kristol, the WSJ, and National Review weren't very important to this decision.
As it is a tactical retreat it's very doubtful that Ryan was his first pick originally.
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