In economic debates we often get into the question of EMH. A point about the EMH is that you can maybe beat the market for a little while but time will run out pretty quickly as the market catches up to you. However, doesnt this mean that it's a pure game of chance that no rational agent would bother with?
I know some folks who bet football games. However, it seems to me that beating the 'House' in football is even harder than beating the market in stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds, etc.
After all, I'd love to know how many proferssional prognsiticators saw the Rams coming. Or that all those top AFC division leading teams would lose. Who saw the San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 17 ? Who saw Philly losing to Minnesoate and then losing no ground as Dallas blows a 23 point game to the Packers? It's the same in basketball. I mean my NY Knicks blowout theJersey Brooklyn Nets. So then the Boston Celtics beat the Knicks by 41 points. So the Celtics should therefore beat the Nets by 71 right? Accept they lost by 8.
Here's a pop quiz-no peaking! Who has the higher ranked defense, the Kansas City Chiefs or NY Giants?.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2013&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1
I'll give you a hint-the two teams are not close, 11 places separate them. Yep, the Giants are 10th in the league in defense-measured as total yards per game and the Chiefs are 21st. Yes, I was shocked too. A couple of thoughts:
1. The perception that throughout the season-at least sincnce the 0-6 start the defense has played better is correct. The problem has been chiefly the offense.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/12/season-is-giant-failure-is-eli-to-blame.html
2. Total yards in some ways isn't the best indicator of how an offense or defense play. Guess who's number 4 on the list? You guessed it, the Houston Texans. It's a reliable guage but not totally. The first 3 teams are who you'd expect-Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco, in that order.
I know some folks who bet football games. However, it seems to me that beating the 'House' in football is even harder than beating the market in stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds, etc.
After all, I'd love to know how many proferssional prognsiticators saw the Rams coming. Or that all those top AFC division leading teams would lose. Who saw the San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 17 ? Who saw Philly losing to Minnesoate and then losing no ground as Dallas blows a 23 point game to the Packers? It's the same in basketball. I mean my NY Knicks blowout the
Here's a pop quiz-no peaking! Who has the higher ranked defense, the Kansas City Chiefs or NY Giants?.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2013&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1
I'll give you a hint-the two teams are not close, 11 places separate them. Yep, the Giants are 10th in the league in defense-measured as total yards per game and the Chiefs are 21st. Yes, I was shocked too. A couple of thoughts:
1. The perception that throughout the season-at least sincnce the 0-6 start the defense has played better is correct. The problem has been chiefly the offense.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/12/season-is-giant-failure-is-eli-to-blame.html
2. Total yards in some ways isn't the best indicator of how an offense or defense play. Guess who's number 4 on the list? You guessed it, the Houston Texans. It's a reliable guage but not totally. The first 3 teams are who you'd expect-Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco, in that order.
No comments:
Post a Comment