Josh Marshall makes the crucial point that while the rules might allow the GOP to play games and deny him the nomination and maybe even put someone on the ticket who didn't even run in the primary, there is the fact that while the rules are one thing, legitimacy is another.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/hell-to-pay--2
If they take it from Trump and give it to someone with fewer delegates it will not be seen as a legitimate result from many in the party. As for giving it to Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney, Karl Rove suggested that yesterday and there was some major blowback on conservative Twitter.
Michael Cohen:
"This actually increases the chances that Trump may be denied achieving the magic number of 1,237 in the primaries — more candidates mean more ways for delegates to be apportioned. But it also will likely ensure that Trump will have the highest number of delegates when the primary season is over. That’s the elephant in the room for Republicans. Even if party leaders can engineer pre-convention shenanigans to stop Trump from getting the nomination; even if they can operate within the rules to hand the nomination to Cruz or Kasich, the fact that Trump will likely have the most delegates creates enormous perception problems."
"Trump and his supporters will argue, persuasively, that the person with the most votes should win the nomination no matter what the rules say."
"Putting aside the fact that giving the nomination to someone other than the person with the most votes and most delegates in primaries and caucuses is undemocratic, there couldn’t be a worse year to do it."
"One of the biggest reasons for Trump’s rise is the belief among Republican rank-and-file voters that the party leadership doesn’t listen to them and has even betrayed them. It’s difficult to imagine a more destructive act than Republican leaders telling the voters who have passionately supported Trump, gone to his rallies, and cast ballots for him “sorry, no dice.” Stopping Trump would serve as confirmation of every bad thing that Trump voters think about their party leadership."
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/04/01/gop-shouldn-try-stop-trump-convention/03slXklW6LuSBHrBYLpWDN/story.html?event=event12
It is not appreciated how much Trump is about the GOP base deliberately kicking the Establishment in the teeth. At a Frank Luntz focus group some of the Trump supporters said straight out that even if Trump did lose the general, maybe that's what the party needs.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/31/rncs-2012-rule-disqualifies-anyone-other-than-dona/
To be sure, he doesn't have eight states yet, but evidently, he's confident. He does have six currently-seven if you count Louisiana where he and Trump both have 18-he managed to pull this off despite getting blown out by Trump in the popular vote.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/hell-to-pay--2
If they take it from Trump and give it to someone with fewer delegates it will not be seen as a legitimate result from many in the party. As for giving it to Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney, Karl Rove suggested that yesterday and there was some major blowback on conservative Twitter.
Michael Cohen:
"This actually increases the chances that Trump may be denied achieving the magic number of 1,237 in the primaries — more candidates mean more ways for delegates to be apportioned. But it also will likely ensure that Trump will have the highest number of delegates when the primary season is over. That’s the elephant in the room for Republicans. Even if party leaders can engineer pre-convention shenanigans to stop Trump from getting the nomination; even if they can operate within the rules to hand the nomination to Cruz or Kasich, the fact that Trump will likely have the most delegates creates enormous perception problems."
"Trump and his supporters will argue, persuasively, that the person with the most votes should win the nomination no matter what the rules say."
"Putting aside the fact that giving the nomination to someone other than the person with the most votes and most delegates in primaries and caucuses is undemocratic, there couldn’t be a worse year to do it."
"One of the biggest reasons for Trump’s rise is the belief among Republican rank-and-file voters that the party leadership doesn’t listen to them and has even betrayed them. It’s difficult to imagine a more destructive act than Republican leaders telling the voters who have passionately supported Trump, gone to his rallies, and cast ballots for him “sorry, no dice.” Stopping Trump would serve as confirmation of every bad thing that Trump voters think about their party leadership."
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/04/01/gop-shouldn-try-stop-trump-convention/03slXklW6LuSBHrBYLpWDN/story.html?event=event12
It is not appreciated how much Trump is about the GOP base deliberately kicking the Establishment in the teeth. At a Frank Luntz focus group some of the Trump supporters said straight out that even if Trump did lose the general, maybe that's what the party needs.
The base wants to stick it to the party. If the GOP somehow enables the candidate without the most delegates to win there will be, as Josh Marshall says, hell to pay.
P.S. Ted Cruz is smartening up and opposing the GOP hope of getting rid of Rule 40-which only allows candidates who have won the majority of delegates of eight states to be chosen at the convention.http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/31/rncs-2012-rule-disqualifies-anyone-other-than-dona/
To be sure, he doesn't have eight states yet, but evidently, he's confident. He does have six currently-seven if you count Louisiana where he and Trump both have 18-he managed to pull this off despite getting blown out by Trump in the popular vote.
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