That seems to be the consensus. The pundits seem to have decided that this is more likely than Trump winning. And, of course, it's believed that if Trump isn't a first ballot winner, he isn't going to win at all.
The betting markets now think a brokered convention is the most likely outcome. This is now given an over 63 percent likelihood.
https://electionbettingodds.com/conv.html
Meanwhile. Trump's chances at the GOP nomination is down to just 50 percent-it was at 44 percent right after the Wisconsin loss after he had been up at 70 percent a few weeks ago.
MSNBC's Steve Kornacke, however, doesn't agree that the BC is the most likely outcome-he thinks Trump gets his 1237.
"I'll change my mind if he underperforms in NY and on 4/26, but right now I still have Trump clearing 1,237 by the end of the primaries."
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/718047646338908160
Speaking of Trump, guess who Giuliani is voting for? You guessed it.
http://nypost.com/2016/04/07/rudy-giuliani-is-voting-for-donald-trump/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
Whatever the odds of a BC, if there is one, Nate Silver believes that the only other candidate with a shot is Ted Cruz. Cruz can win a BC but no one else can.
He argues that a lot of delegates like Cruz and he's already had some success in pilfering Trump's
delegates.
"Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention."
"The ‘establishment’ might not like Cruz, but the delegates likely will."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-not-paul-ryan-would-probably-win-a-contested-convention/
The betting markets now think a brokered convention is the most likely outcome. This is now given an over 63 percent likelihood.
https://electionbettingodds.com/conv.html
Meanwhile. Trump's chances at the GOP nomination is down to just 50 percent-it was at 44 percent right after the Wisconsin loss after he had been up at 70 percent a few weeks ago.
MSNBC's Steve Kornacke, however, doesn't agree that the BC is the most likely outcome-he thinks Trump gets his 1237.
"I'll change my mind if he underperforms in NY and on 4/26, but right now I still have Trump clearing 1,237 by the end of the primaries."
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/718047646338908160
Speaking of Trump, guess who Giuliani is voting for? You guessed it.
http://nypost.com/2016/04/07/rudy-giuliani-is-voting-for-donald-trump/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
Whatever the odds of a BC, if there is one, Nate Silver believes that the only other candidate with a shot is Ted Cruz. Cruz can win a BC but no one else can.
He argues that a lot of delegates like Cruz and he's already had some success in pilfering Trump's
delegates.
"Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention."
"The ‘establishment’ might not like Cruz, but the delegates likely will."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-not-paul-ryan-would-probably-win-a-contested-convention/
The Establishment certainly doesn't like Cruz.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/04/08/gop_senators_still_not_flocking_to_cruz_130230.html
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