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Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Not Exactly a Surprise in Mississippi

No surprise here. Hillary was supposed to win the state and very handily and it was called the moment polls closed at the eight o'clock hour.

She has again won an enormous margin among black voters of 90 percent-similar to what she did in Alabama. However, she also seems to have won two thirds of white voters.

"ABC News has projected that Clinton wins Mississippi. That should come as no surprise given Clinton’s complete dominance in the South so far. What looks to be a huge win was aided by her taking nearly 90 percent of the vote among African-Americans, who made up about 60 percent of Democratic primary voters in Mississippi. That said, the early exit polls also have her winning the white vote by a nearly 2-1 margin. The question will be whether Sanders can reach 15 percent statewide to win any of the eight at-large delegates."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-primaries-presidential-election-2016/

The real suspense comes for nine o'clock. Will she win Michigan and by how much? It certainly seems she will and the only question is by how much. She led every single poll in Michigan and always by at least 10 points-and sometimes as much as 30 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

If she does win this handily this basically puts Bernie to bed. Tad Stevens in his recent interview with Politico's Glenn Thrush seems to admitted as much.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOPress/status/707229417144057857

On the GOP side, the media is obsessed with the idea that #StopTrump is working. If he does well tonight then this line will be given up, but if Trump underperforms again then this will give more aid and comfort to the effort.

The sad thing is that even if the GOP can stop Trump it will probably only be in exchange for Cruz. Haley Barbour did endorse Cruz today so some in the GOP are biting the bullet.

Of course, as usual for the 2016 GOP, the trouble is that everyone is doing their own thing. The party can't decide as no one in the party can agree with each other.

David Wasserman:

"Most people are focused on which candidates will win tonight’s GOP primary contests. But I’ll be watching this number: How many of the 150 delegates at stake in tonight’s primaries go to candidates other than Donald Trump or Ted Cruz? Trump and Cruz have combined to win about 76 percent of delegates awarded so far, but if the delegate share for other candidates rises from 24 percent tonight, so will the odds of a contested convention."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-primaries-presidential-election-2016/



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