I've argued in my previous pieces early this morning that there are two ways to look at this. There is the glass half full way for Hillary and the glass half full way for Bernie.
For Bernie this is momentum, for Hillary, this is math. And for now, at least, everyone will be focused on momentum.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/hillary-remains-on-obama-track-to.html
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-good-news-and-bad-news-in-last.html
There is the problem though. Let's say this is true. Suppose he were to win Ohio by another 2 points and lose Illinois by a couple unlike the polls which show her up big in each.
This would do nothing to cut into her lead. She could win big in Florida and Missouri and the lead would just increase. A two point win in Michigan generates some attention and makes it easier for him to continue.
But it doesn't do anything to cut into her lead which is now 550 delegates, including over 200 in pledged delegates.
"The problem for Sanders is that even if he’s shown that he can win big states outside the South, he’s not showing that he can win them by much. Hillary Clinton has already won delegate-rich states like Texas and Georgia by large margins, basically wiping out whatever pick-ups Sanders has had, and she’s run up the score in smaller contests largely based on support from black voters. As a result, she had already amassed a daunting lead of more than 200 pledged delegates heading into Tuesday night. (That doesn’t even count her enormous margin among superdelegates, but Clinton’s goal is and should be to win a majority of pledged delegates.)"
"Winning the big prize on Tuesday night helps Sanders mostly in terms of horserace narrative purposes: showing the world that he’s not dead yet. But between Michigan and Mississippi—with Idaho and Hawaii still out—Sanders on net will lose ground to Clinton in the delegate race Tuesday night. As of this writing Sanders is projected to take 63 delegates from Michigan to Clinton’s 53. In Mississippi, however, Clinton is projected to take 28 delegates to Sanders’ 1, as Sanders only barely crossed the state’s 15 percent minimum threshold. These numbers will change a tad as the final votes are tallied, but right now they show Clinton netting 17 delegates between the two."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/bernie_sanders_shock_michigan_upset_of_hillary_clinton.html
For Bernie this is momentum, for Hillary, this is math. And for now, at least, everyone will be focused on momentum.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/hillary-remains-on-obama-track-to.html
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-good-news-and-bad-news-in-last.html
"While the Sanders win in Michigan does nothing to change the mathematical inevitability of Clinton winning the nomination, it does mean that Hillary Clinton needs to reexamine her campaign strategy in light of tonight surprising loss. Politics is just as much about perception as it is about actual vote counts and tonight’s loss creates a negative impression of Hillary losing in a key state."
"There is another Democratic debate scheduled for Wednesday evening in Florida that suddenly has become more interesting following tonight’s results. Bernie will be energized after his win, and Hillary will need to find a way to convince voters outside of the south that she deserves their votes."
https://www.willhillarywin.com/2016/03/09/hillary-wins-mississippi-but-has-a-surprising-loss-in-michigan/
This is a rather silly idea that she can only win in the South or that she only wins in 'red states.'
As I noted earlier, her path is like Obama's in 2008. He won the South and lost Michigan and NH. Does that mean he was a regional candidate?
While Bernie's Michigan win was important symbolically, as he won a large midwestern state, she did win in Massachusetts where the demographics were much more favorable to him. In a way, then, you can see his close Michigan win as the mirror image of her close Massachusetts win.
I think it's fair to say that she may have looked pass Michigan a little.
"From source familiar w/ Clinton Mich operation: loss came down to org fail, taking structural advantages for granted, moving on too soon."
"There is another Democratic debate scheduled for Wednesday evening in Florida that suddenly has become more interesting following tonight’s results. Bernie will be energized after his win, and Hillary will need to find a way to convince voters outside of the south that she deserves their votes."
https://www.willhillarywin.com/2016/03/09/hillary-wins-mississippi-but-has-a-surprising-loss-in-michigan/
This is a rather silly idea that she can only win in the South or that she only wins in 'red states.'
As I noted earlier, her path is like Obama's in 2008. He won the South and lost Michigan and NH. Does that mean he was a regional candidate?
While Bernie's Michigan win was important symbolically, as he won a large midwestern state, she did win in Massachusetts where the demographics were much more favorable to him. In a way, then, you can see his close Michigan win as the mirror image of her close Massachusetts win.
I think it's fair to say that she may have looked pass Michigan a little.
"From source familiar w/ Clinton Mich operation: loss came down to org fail, taking structural advantages for granted, moving on too soon."
"With polls showing Clinton up comfortably, surrogates/Mich labor never realized it could/would be this close. Relied on earned media."
https://twitter.com/rubycramer/status/707439112152862720
https://twitter.com/rubycramer/status/707439112152862720
Again, Hil picked up 40 more net delegates and padded her lead.
The Bernie hope is that Michigan will be a harbinger of him getting wins or at least competing in Ohio and Illinois next week. There is the problem though. Let's say this is true. Suppose he were to win Ohio by another 2 points and lose Illinois by a couple unlike the polls which show her up big in each.
This would do nothing to cut into her lead. She could win big in Florida and Missouri and the lead would just increase. A two point win in Michigan generates some attention and makes it easier for him to continue.
But it doesn't do anything to cut into her lead which is now 550 delegates, including over 200 in pledged delegates.
"The problem for Sanders is that even if he’s shown that he can win big states outside the South, he’s not showing that he can win them by much. Hillary Clinton has already won delegate-rich states like Texas and Georgia by large margins, basically wiping out whatever pick-ups Sanders has had, and she’s run up the score in smaller contests largely based on support from black voters. As a result, she had already amassed a daunting lead of more than 200 pledged delegates heading into Tuesday night. (That doesn’t even count her enormous margin among superdelegates, but Clinton’s goal is and should be to win a majority of pledged delegates.)"
"Winning the big prize on Tuesday night helps Sanders mostly in terms of horserace narrative purposes: showing the world that he’s not dead yet. But between Michigan and Mississippi—with Idaho and Hawaii still out—Sanders on net will lose ground to Clinton in the delegate race Tuesday night. As of this writing Sanders is projected to take 63 delegates from Michigan to Clinton’s 53. In Mississippi, however, Clinton is projected to take 28 delegates to Sanders’ 1, as Sanders only barely crossed the state’s 15 percent minimum threshold. These numbers will change a tad as the final votes are tallied, but right now they show Clinton netting 17 delegates between the two."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/bernie_sanders_shock_michigan_upset_of_hillary_clinton.html
Actually, for the record, Bernie has a 65-58 lead in pledged delegates according to both Politico and RCP with 10 superdelegates which gives her a 68-65 delegate win in Michigan plus her huge Mississippi win.
But certainly the point is well taken. She remains on a glide path to the nomination. He is winning big on symbolism. But the nature of this race hasn't changed. She is on the Obama path where he won Iowa, lost NH, won the South, and lost Michigan.
Indeed, her Southern dominance is greater than his was-he lost Arkansas and Florida.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
So Bernie got a moral victory last night but is nowhere near a path to victory.
But certainly the point is well taken. She remains on a glide path to the nomination. He is winning big on symbolism. But the nature of this race hasn't changed. She is on the Obama path where he won Iowa, lost NH, won the South, and lost Michigan.
Indeed, her Southern dominance is greater than his was-he lost Arkansas and Florida.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
So Bernie got a moral victory last night but is nowhere near a path to victory.
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