In many ways I think Goodman does his friend Bernie Sanders more harm than good. I guess he wants to fire up the Bernie troops but if the point of a campaign is to manage expectations, then Goodman sure is hurting that effort by making some fairly ludicrous predictions.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/ha-goodman-on-how-bernie-wins-black.html
Does he really believe that Bernie will burn through every primary 50-0 and then win the general 50-0? I don't know but this is what he predicts.
So Bernie's prognosticators are even more unrealistic than his policy proposals.
But, look, the fact that the media is talking like Bernie is the favorite in Iowa now and that she has no chance in NH is perfect from the standpoint of the Clintonites.
The media has focused on that one CNN Iowa poll that showed him up by 8 points on Thursday and ignored the two others on Thursday which showed her up by 9 in each or that poll on Friday which showed her leading by 29 points. That's an average of 12.5 points but all you keep seeing on cable news is that one that showed Bernie up by 8.
So she is the underdog in Iowa. In NH there was great focus on the one poll that showed Bernie up by 27 points. So clearly she has no hope in NH. Let alone all the other polls that have shown it a tight race-yesterday a NH poll showed him up by 9 which is much more in line with averages.
But no matter. Morning Joe and other Hillary haters say she's down 8 in Iowa and 27 in NH.
As to Goodman's actual strategy for Bernie blazing thorough the South, it's perhaps not so plausible.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/01/ha-goodman-on-how-bernie-wins-black.html
Does he really believe that Bernie will burn through every primary 50-0 and then win the general 50-0? I don't know but this is what he predicts.
So Bernie's prognosticators are even more unrealistic than his policy proposals.
But, look, the fact that the media is talking like Bernie is the favorite in Iowa now and that she has no chance in NH is perfect from the standpoint of the Clintonites.
The media has focused on that one CNN Iowa poll that showed him up by 8 points on Thursday and ignored the two others on Thursday which showed her up by 9 in each or that poll on Friday which showed her leading by 29 points. That's an average of 12.5 points but all you keep seeing on cable news is that one that showed Bernie up by 8.
So she is the underdog in Iowa. In NH there was great focus on the one poll that showed Bernie up by 27 points. So clearly she has no hope in NH. Let alone all the other polls that have shown it a tight race-yesterday a NH poll showed him up by 9 which is much more in line with averages.
But no matter. Morning Joe and other Hillary haters say she's down 8 in Iowa and 27 in NH.
As to Goodman's actual strategy for Bernie blazing thorough the South, it's perhaps not so plausible.
It's predicated on the idea that Bernie will turn black voters off of Hillary and onto him by pointing to the fact that she's taken money from private prison lobbyists and her husband passed the crime bill in the 90s.
As regarding the issue of private prisons, she stopped taking such donations and sent the money to charity. She has come out against private detention centers from undocumented immigrants.
The crime bill in many respects we now see as mistaken but at the time there was a desire in many black communities to do something about the crime wave of the 70s, 80s, and early 90s.
Since then we have seen crime levels in US cities go way down. Today the issue is mass incarceration of black men and laws which are too tough on drug use, etc.
So she has evolved. I don't get why that's a dirty word among the Bernidistas. Liberal Democrats evolve. George W. Bush and Reagan were the ones who refused to ever reconsider on the basis of new evidence.
Hillary now has a comprehensive plan to end mass incarceration of black men as well as the very important problem of voter suppression. One very important idea of hers is same day voting.
Beyond this, I don't think Goodman understands what it takes to win the black vote. Paul Waldman explained it well yesterday:
"While Sanders would argue that he has a strong case to make to those voters about why they should support him, Clinton has ties to them that go back decades. And as a whole (and keep in mind that what I’m talking about doesn’t necessarily apply to any one individual even if it holds true for the group at large), African-Americans have a pragmatic view of politics. They had to fight — and some people even died — to secure the right to vote that whites always took for granted. They have to keep fighting to maintain that right in the face of a GOP that would put every impediment to the ballot it can find in front of them."
"Ask anyone involved in Democratic politics about winning black votes in primaries, and they’ll tell you that it isn’t about hopes and dreams, though those are nice too. It’s about the nuts and bolts: the social networks, the key endorsers and officials, the neighborhood institutions, the systems that have been built up in the most trying circumstances to get people to the polls. Those kinds of factors are matter among every voting bloc, but they’re particularly important among African-Americans. You can’t blow into town a week before election day with a bunch of eager white 20-something volunteers from somewhere else and win their votes."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/01/22/why-african-american-voters-may-doom-bernie-sanders-candidacy/
Based on this, it's clear that Bernie has a virtually Herculean process on his hands. For so many reasons it will be tough for Bernie to reassure such pragmatic voters. How does it happen overnight? Remember, Super Tuesday is just barely over a month away-March 1; remember February is a short month.
Yet Goodman thinks Bernie can win black voters over in this short space of time simply by talking about private prison donations? It will take a lot more than that and there isn't the time. He currently trails among nonwhite voters by 40 points and it's more among African-Americans than Latinos."
As for endorsers, the only notable one he has among prominent African-Americans is Cornell West who is a very polarizing figure within the community with the things West has said about President Obama.
Ok. You can argue that while Bernie has no shot among the civil rights generation of African-American leaders-they are all for Hillary-maybe he can do better among the Black Lives Matter generation.
There's no doubt that these activists have some real criticism of Hillary on things like the private prisons-though she's stopped taking the money-and the crime bill and welfare reform of the 90s.
Still, on the issue of police brutality and excessive force against young blacks, Hillary is again showing the difference between being a change talker and a change doer.
She can defuse this criticism by pointing out her endorsement by all the black women who lost sons to police brutality.
Trayvon Martin's mother endorsed Hillary. Recall that it was his death that largely precipitated the start of the BLM movement.
Also Eric Garner and Jordan Hill's mothers all endorsed Hillary Clinton.
http://mic.com/articles/133168/hillary-clinton-gets-yet-another-endorsement-from-a-black-mom-whose-son-was-killed#.8Uc0Vup0t
This suggests that she is able to very well to the concerns of BLM-whether or not the young activists are so enamored of her.
As regarding the issue of private prisons, she stopped taking such donations and sent the money to charity. She has come out against private detention centers from undocumented immigrants.
The crime bill in many respects we now see as mistaken but at the time there was a desire in many black communities to do something about the crime wave of the 70s, 80s, and early 90s.
Since then we have seen crime levels in US cities go way down. Today the issue is mass incarceration of black men and laws which are too tough on drug use, etc.
So she has evolved. I don't get why that's a dirty word among the Bernidistas. Liberal Democrats evolve. George W. Bush and Reagan were the ones who refused to ever reconsider on the basis of new evidence.
Hillary now has a comprehensive plan to end mass incarceration of black men as well as the very important problem of voter suppression. One very important idea of hers is same day voting.
Beyond this, I don't think Goodman understands what it takes to win the black vote. Paul Waldman explained it well yesterday:
"While Sanders would argue that he has a strong case to make to those voters about why they should support him, Clinton has ties to them that go back decades. And as a whole (and keep in mind that what I’m talking about doesn’t necessarily apply to any one individual even if it holds true for the group at large), African-Americans have a pragmatic view of politics. They had to fight — and some people even died — to secure the right to vote that whites always took for granted. They have to keep fighting to maintain that right in the face of a GOP that would put every impediment to the ballot it can find in front of them."
"Ask anyone involved in Democratic politics about winning black votes in primaries, and they’ll tell you that it isn’t about hopes and dreams, though those are nice too. It’s about the nuts and bolts: the social networks, the key endorsers and officials, the neighborhood institutions, the systems that have been built up in the most trying circumstances to get people to the polls. Those kinds of factors are matter among every voting bloc, but they’re particularly important among African-Americans. You can’t blow into town a week before election day with a bunch of eager white 20-something volunteers from somewhere else and win their votes."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/01/22/why-african-american-voters-may-doom-bernie-sanders-candidacy/
Based on this, it's clear that Bernie has a virtually Herculean process on his hands. For so many reasons it will be tough for Bernie to reassure such pragmatic voters. How does it happen overnight? Remember, Super Tuesday is just barely over a month away-March 1; remember February is a short month.
Yet Goodman thinks Bernie can win black voters over in this short space of time simply by talking about private prison donations? It will take a lot more than that and there isn't the time. He currently trails among nonwhite voters by 40 points and it's more among African-Americans than Latinos."
As for endorsers, the only notable one he has among prominent African-Americans is Cornell West who is a very polarizing figure within the community with the things West has said about President Obama.
Ok. You can argue that while Bernie has no shot among the civil rights generation of African-American leaders-they are all for Hillary-maybe he can do better among the Black Lives Matter generation.
There's no doubt that these activists have some real criticism of Hillary on things like the private prisons-though she's stopped taking the money-and the crime bill and welfare reform of the 90s.
Still, on the issue of police brutality and excessive force against young blacks, Hillary is again showing the difference between being a change talker and a change doer.
She can defuse this criticism by pointing out her endorsement by all the black women who lost sons to police brutality.
Trayvon Martin's mother endorsed Hillary. Recall that it was his death that largely precipitated the start of the BLM movement.
Also Eric Garner and Jordan Hill's mothers all endorsed Hillary Clinton.
http://mic.com/articles/133168/hillary-clinton-gets-yet-another-endorsement-from-a-black-mom-whose-son-was-killed#.8Uc0Vup0t
This suggests that she is able to very well to the concerns of BLM-whether or not the young activists are so enamored of her.
Mike, you see the Bloomberg news? Likely it'd be a sanity platform. Not good!
ReplyDeletePut it this way: no inbred gun morons will be voting Bloomberg.
DeleteI've never seen Sumner so political. He says we have a one party system now (Dems). Maybe we can bring the Whigs back, but the GOP is toast:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=31443
Right that's why I said if God forbid, Bernie were the Dems nominee I might vote Bloomberg if he ran.
ReplyDeleteSure, but he could draw a lot of support away from HRC too. If you give the sanity vote another option, maximum entropy says some will take it.
DeleteSo he only runs if it's Bernie vs Trump?
DeleteWell as I understand it, his main focus is to come in if it's Sanders-Trump.
DeleteBut even if it was just Trump while Bloomberg could shave off some HRC votes he'd in that case take a lot more GOP Establishment votes.
"he'd in that case take a lot more GOP Establishment votes"
DeleteFind me a Republican who's not a gun lunatic. There's no way a gun lunatic is voting Bloomberg.
That ship has sailed.
Well we've had lots of GOPers already hint they might vote Hillary if it's Trump. Bloomberg would be their way of avoiding that indignity.
DeleteExactly. Hopefully Bloomberg has enough sense to avoid causing even more damage.
DeleteWow. Sumner does seem to get it.
ReplyDeleteDid you see the post two posts earlier where he called Trump's platform "100% pure unadulterated evil?" Lol!
DeleteYes, you sent me the link before and I checked it out. He was right in what he said there too
Delete"100% pure unadulterated evil" has always been one of my favorite phrases. It crack me up every time.
DeleteThat's actually a great Trump allusion-Napoleon!
ReplyDeleteOf course this is what I always wanted-one party dominance. LOL.
ReplyDeleteWilliam F. Buckely rolls in his grave
I care less about which party dominates and more about what ideas are coming out of the party. Todays Dems are still largely in favor of privatizing just about everything, in favor of monetary over fiscal policy, are still militaristic (although less eager to nuke!) and have yet to find a voice to reverse the Reagan/Thatcher
ReplyDeleteneoliberalism ravaging the planet. Im not totally happy with the one party we may end up with, our leaders still insulated, out of touch elitists who would just as soon see people die than to be referred to as a "socialist" or "communist" on the pages of a major newspaper or magazine.
I don't see how ideas get taken forward without a party.
ReplyDeleteAnd the Dems have moved to the Left over the last few years. I'm not sure what you're referring to in terms of privatization.
I care about party as that's the only way any ideas can win in the long view.
At the end of the day campaign is poetry and governing is prose. I see nothing to suggest Bernie knows the difference.
I had a very telling conversation with a Bernie supporter on Twitter. She told me that in Congress Bernie introduced lots and lots of bills.
Great I answered. So how many passed? Her answer was 'Oh, so if that's what matters to you, what the corporatists will allow...'
I just don't see this as the time for a purely aspirational choice. There are real problems and challenges from the GOP we have to deal with on day one in 2017.
Mike, your sentence here reminded me of something I saw in a 15-year old's Twitter feed the other day (John Handley is who I'm referring to... from what I can discern, he's one of the most intelligent and informed commentators and "amateur economists" regularly commenting at Sumner's, Rowe's and Jason's blogs)
DeleteI recommend John's blog too. His twitter feed is accessible from the right hand column of his blog: like a say, a lot of good stuff in there.
... your sentence I was referring to was this one:
Delete"And the Dems have moved to the Left over the last few years."
The 2nd link (to John's blog) above is wrong. Here's the proper link.
DeleteSo I guess I kind of disagree with you in terms of where the party is right now. Obama accomplished a lot in the last 7 years and I don't see the case that he could have done much more.
ReplyDeleteWhen you factor in the level of obstructionism he got that case just isn't there.
Look, Im not one who thinks Bernie would be a great president. He's too old, he's too different from the rest of the establishment and would only last one term if elected.... but I think his voice needs to be heard for as long as it can. I think its great that many young people are behind him. Its the young peoples future, they are the ones that have the chance to make the big changes they just have to understand that they can and then get around to the dirty work of doing it.
ReplyDeleteI think there are enough young people who are starting to understand that they have been told huge lies by their elders.... the TINA crowd. There is an alternative way. They can have a different health care system that doesn't profit off disease and an education system that sees their teachers as "costs" and a prison system that looks for new ways to put people in jail because the states have contracted with the prison companies to guarantee a certain capacity. These are f*cked up ways of looking at the world that have really only emerged since the Reagan revolution...... and they need to be stopped tomorrow. Of course they won't be stopped tomorrow but stopping those should be their goal.
And Bernie is at least trying to put to rest the notion that the "govt" is the problem or at least he is adding the context of what govt is and how it arrives at its policy positions..... it gets to the policy positions it does because of the influence of money. Govt doesn't act on its own, it is guided by money interests to do their bidding. Sure there is money on many sides of all issues but there is usually more on certain sides. To hear conservatives talk we just get people like Obama or Clinton telling rich people what to do when in fact its the opposite for the most part.
ReplyDeleteAs aspirations I don't disagree. I still think we can get there through incremental change.
ReplyDeleteBut you have to build the coalition. In the UK I would vote for Jeremy Corbyn-though you could argue he's further Left than Bernie; after all the UK is further Left in general.
But Corbyn did it the right way. He was chosen by his party-the Labor party.
And Labor in the UK needs to move Left to stop the Left from going the the Scottish National Party.
Also I see the Democratic party as much more healthy and less pitiful than Labor. We've had some real victories in the Obama years.
Yes not as far as we wanted but it was a starting point that can be built on.
Certainly this is true of ACA or Dodd-Frank.
The irony Bernie wants to break up the big banks and you can do that in D0dd-Frank.
"As aspirations I don't disagree. I still think we can get there through incremental change"
DeleteYes but not all increments have to be tiny.
"But you have to build the coalition. "
Bernie is trying to build a coalition, he's focusing on a coalition of the people first (as is Trump) his colleagues are hopeless..... I don't understand why populism is such a dirty word in a supposed democracy.
"But Corbyn did it the right way. He was chosen by his party-the Labor party."
I believe that is what Bernie is trying to do right now, he's not asking to be anointed. Sure, he hasn't been a run of the mill democrat for his career but I think that is part of his appeal. Democrats aren't blameless in our descent to where we are. Too many have been Repub lite.
"We've had some real victories in the Obama years. "
Its true, I have felt quite a few times that we held off conservative assaults on things but mostly its been defense and not trying to truly change direction.
I don;t think it's only been defense. The ACA, Dodd-Frank, what Obama has done on climate change, with the Iran deal, with Cuba, with raising the wages of various government workers and raising overtime pay.
DeleteHe's done a good deal.
I don't know how he can be to blame for not going further unless you believed that there were votes for things in Congress he could have gotten but he chose not to push for them.
I see it this way Greg. If the effect of Bernie is to move the OVerton Window Left, I'm all for it.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't think it would be good if he wins the nomination.
There are real immediate fights we have to win regarding the Supreme Court, fighting back against voter suppression, fighting back on the war against women where they have Planned Parenthood in their sights and in many states access to abortion and other health services for women is almost nil.
So I'm all for Bernie has a protest candidate. As a serious candidate I have a problem.