Market expectations for tomorrow's payroll numbers to be released at 8:30 are as is typical lately, is treacherous. The market definitely doesn't want another weak number like we saw in August with only 142,000 new nonfarm jobs. The market definitely wants to see more than 200,000 jobs.
However, they don't want the number to be too strong either. A really strong number over 250,000 or so would make the market worry that the Fed will see these numbers and raise interest rates too quickly and too fast.
My prognostication. As I said earlier I have finally been pushed out of the long side for the market for now. I am convinced that for now at least buying the dips which has worked so well for so long is over.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-market-tanks-gopro-sells-off-and.html
So I'm going into tomorrow's number net short. I bought some puts in both the energy ETF, XLE, and Caterpillar (CAT). I sold some Alibaba stock (BABA) to raise money to buy the puts but left most of the position still on, which for one day actually worked out as BABA was actually one of the few stocks that did well today. It has behaved very well since the first day of the IPO. It's very surprising how little volatility there has been in the stock so far.
My best guess is this. The Dow futures will be up tomorrow morning.
UPDATE: I just checked the futures and they are up 34 points right now.
Anyway, they will be up tomorrow until the payroll number. My guess is even if you get the 'Goldilocks' the market in that case may open in the green but by 10, it will already be selling off. The market just seems to want to sell off right now. Even if they initially like the payroll numbers before you know it the market will focus on something else they think spell doom. This is just a bad market for now. The question is how long the correction goes on for. Maybe it will last the whole of October.
Oil for now at least is in trouble with Saudi Arabia vowing to protect their market share-rather than trying to put a floor on prices. .Cramer argued tonight on Mad Money that this is being done to hurt American oil companies by raising the cost of doing business in the US-by bringing prices down below the level the American companies can turn a profit.
As oil dipped beneath $90 today it seems a decent bet to at some point push $80 which would put even ore pressure on oil stocks.
However, they don't want the number to be too strong either. A really strong number over 250,000 or so would make the market worry that the Fed will see these numbers and raise interest rates too quickly and too fast.
My prognostication. As I said earlier I have finally been pushed out of the long side for the market for now. I am convinced that for now at least buying the dips which has worked so well for so long is over.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-market-tanks-gopro-sells-off-and.html
So I'm going into tomorrow's number net short. I bought some puts in both the energy ETF, XLE, and Caterpillar (CAT). I sold some Alibaba stock (BABA) to raise money to buy the puts but left most of the position still on, which for one day actually worked out as BABA was actually one of the few stocks that did well today. It has behaved very well since the first day of the IPO. It's very surprising how little volatility there has been in the stock so far.
My best guess is this. The Dow futures will be up tomorrow morning.
UPDATE: I just checked the futures and they are up 34 points right now.
Anyway, they will be up tomorrow until the payroll number. My guess is even if you get the 'Goldilocks' the market in that case may open in the green but by 10, it will already be selling off. The market just seems to want to sell off right now. Even if they initially like the payroll numbers before you know it the market will focus on something else they think spell doom. This is just a bad market for now. The question is how long the correction goes on for. Maybe it will last the whole of October.
Oil for now at least is in trouble with Saudi Arabia vowing to protect their market share-rather than trying to put a floor on prices. .Cramer argued tonight on Mad Money that this is being done to hurt American oil companies by raising the cost of doing business in the US-by bringing prices down below the level the American companies can turn a profit.
As oil dipped beneath $90 today it seems a decent bet to at some point push $80 which would put even ore pressure on oil stocks.
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