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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Austerity in Spain: Another Satisfied Customer

       Say this for Spain things are not only going bad but they are setting records for how bad they are getting. Like see Spain's retail sector:

       "Spain's economy showed fresh strain as retail sales fell at a record pace in April, showing the government's austerity program is strangling consumption and suggesting deepening recession."

        "Data Tuesday from the National Statistics Institute, or INE, showed seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 9.8% on the year in April, compared with a 3.8% drop in March. The decline was the sharpest since INE started collecting the data in January 2004. Household spending is dropping as unemployment approaches 25% of the work force."

         http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303807404577433953044087354.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLENews

         However no doubt the EU and Germany aren't worried about this-never mind 25% unemployment what matters is fiscal discipline:

        "Spain is in recession, seen by most economists as two consecutive quarters of contraction. The Bank of Spain said in its monthly economic report Tuesday that data point to a second-quarter fall in gross domestic product. The government is caught between the floundering economy and European Union requirements to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2013. State spending had been the one cushion since a property bust in 2008 and drove a brief, temporary recovery up to the fourth quarter."

         "Spanish second-quarter GDP will fall at a "markedly sharper rate" of between 0.7% and 0.9% after declining by 0.3% in the first quarter from the fourth, said Raj Badiani, an analyst at IHS Global Insight."

        "Concerns over Spain's economy and the government's ability to repay debt pushed the yield on the 10-year government bond to as high as 6.49% Tuesday. There is speculation the country may follow Portugal, Ireland and Greece to a bailout by international lenders, though it could potentially be covered by existing rescue funds and the International Monetary Fund, said analysts at Société Générale."

        "There are "worrying signs that European countries are, one by one, crumbling," they wrote in e-mailed comments."

        So the poor numbers pushed up yields-this is the point of those who oppose austerity. All this does is push down growth which decreases revenue and ironically further hurts confidence. Investor confidence cares most about the future health of the economy which looks terrible in Spain.

        European countries are one by one crumbling and no one has an answer more than more and more "medicine."

        When can a medicine be said to fail?

      

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