According to Ben Ginsburg-an old Mitt Romney hand-they are pretty good. He claims that Trump needs to win both Florida and Ohio to put himself on a glide path to the nomination.
Otherwise it may be BC, here we come. At the present, the chances of him winning Florida look better than Ohio.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march15gop.html
According to Ginsburg if Trump goes into July with a plurality but not a majority it gets very dicey and the winning team may be the one that knows best how to cajole the various state delegates.
"If Trump can win both states, he’s on a glide path to earning a majority of delegates ahead of the July 18 convention. The only way to dethrone him at that point would be for the GOP to throw out its existing convention rules. A move that dramatic won’t happen. It would divide and destroy a party that has always prided itself on adhering to rules."
"But if Trump doesn’t win both states, the GOP is likely to find itself in Cleveland with no candidate above the 1,237-delegate majority needed to claim the nomination. If that happens, the Republican Party’s own rules lock in a quagmire in Cleveland—and likely a multi-ballot, no-holds-barred convention."
"The craziness will unfold in stages, with more delegates increasingly freeing up to vote for whomever they like as the process advances. All that puts a huge premium on an obscure and intricate competition happening right now in each state—the selection of the actual delegates. Any campaign not waging a major, if under-the-national-radar, effort to get its supporters elected as delegates will come up short in Cleveland."
"Trump can put all the contested convention talk to rest by securing a majority of delegates before July, and winning Ohio and Florida would go a long way to achieving that. If he doesn’t win both, the talk will continue."
"While Trump is the frontrunner, he has won only about 44 percent of the delegates awarded in states that have voted so far. By comparison, Mitt Romney had won 56 percent of the delegates at this point in the 2012 primary; he became the presumptive GOP nominee in mid-April and secured a majority of delegates in late May. If Trump maintains his current rate of 44 percent, he will go into Cleveland with just 1,088 of the 2,472 total delegates—149 short of the 1,237 needed for a majority."
"Trump suggested in Thursday night’s debate that the leading candidate, even one shy of a majority, should automatically receive the nomination. But to allow a candidate to be declared the nominee with only a plurality of delegates would require the unprecedented amendment of the existing rules, a feat of rules wizardry as transformative as denying a candidate with a majority the nomination."
"Rather than a wholesale rewriting of the rules, the more likely scenario is that if Trump goes into the convention without a majority, he will need to convince enough of the few unbound delegates there to support him. (The unbound delegates consists of those from five states that decided not to hold statewide votes, as well as 54 from Pennsylvania who were directly elected without declaring a presidential preference.) That approach is consistent with the existing rules—but it won’t be easy. In fact, it could lead to convention mayhem."
Otherwise it may be BC, here we come. At the present, the chances of him winning Florida look better than Ohio.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/march15gop.html
According to Ginsburg if Trump goes into July with a plurality but not a majority it gets very dicey and the winning team may be the one that knows best how to cajole the various state delegates.
"If Trump can win both states, he’s on a glide path to earning a majority of delegates ahead of the July 18 convention. The only way to dethrone him at that point would be for the GOP to throw out its existing convention rules. A move that dramatic won’t happen. It would divide and destroy a party that has always prided itself on adhering to rules."
"But if Trump doesn’t win both states, the GOP is likely to find itself in Cleveland with no candidate above the 1,237-delegate majority needed to claim the nomination. If that happens, the Republican Party’s own rules lock in a quagmire in Cleveland—and likely a multi-ballot, no-holds-barred convention."
"The craziness will unfold in stages, with more delegates increasingly freeing up to vote for whomever they like as the process advances. All that puts a huge premium on an obscure and intricate competition happening right now in each state—the selection of the actual delegates. Any campaign not waging a major, if under-the-national-radar, effort to get its supporters elected as delegates will come up short in Cleveland."
"Trump can put all the contested convention talk to rest by securing a majority of delegates before July, and winning Ohio and Florida would go a long way to achieving that. If he doesn’t win both, the talk will continue."
"While Trump is the frontrunner, he has won only about 44 percent of the delegates awarded in states that have voted so far. By comparison, Mitt Romney had won 56 percent of the delegates at this point in the 2012 primary; he became the presumptive GOP nominee in mid-April and secured a majority of delegates in late May. If Trump maintains his current rate of 44 percent, he will go into Cleveland with just 1,088 of the 2,472 total delegates—149 short of the 1,237 needed for a majority."
"Trump suggested in Thursday night’s debate that the leading candidate, even one shy of a majority, should automatically receive the nomination. But to allow a candidate to be declared the nominee with only a plurality of delegates would require the unprecedented amendment of the existing rules, a feat of rules wizardry as transformative as denying a candidate with a majority the nomination."
"Rather than a wholesale rewriting of the rules, the more likely scenario is that if Trump goes into the convention without a majority, he will need to convince enough of the few unbound delegates there to support him. (The unbound delegates consists of those from five states that decided not to hold statewide votes, as well as 54 from Pennsylvania who were directly elected without declaring a presidential preference.) That approach is consistent with the existing rules—but it won’t be easy. In fact, it could lead to convention mayhem."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/republican-contention-chaos-213725#ixzz42irYvpC8
Point well taken, but: if Trump gets there with a clear plurality of votes but doesn't get the nomination-if instead it ends up in the hands of, say, Ginsberg's buddy, Mitt Romney, it is not going to be pretty.
Even if it's true to argue as Ginsberg does that this wouldn't be the result of party chicanery just playing by the rules as written, this would not mollify the Trump supporters.
You can argue that the rules don't allow a plurality of delegates to magically become a majority. But it still will seem much fairer for voters than for someone with no votes at all-Mitt or Paul Ryan, etc-to get it.
If this is what happens then, have no doubt that Trump will take a lot of supporters with him whether he himself runs independent or not.
Point well taken, but: if Trump gets there with a clear plurality of votes but doesn't get the nomination-if instead it ends up in the hands of, say, Ginsberg's buddy, Mitt Romney, it is not going to be pretty.
Even if it's true to argue as Ginsberg does that this wouldn't be the result of party chicanery just playing by the rules as written, this would not mollify the Trump supporters.
You can argue that the rules don't allow a plurality of delegates to magically become a majority. But it still will seem much fairer for voters than for someone with no votes at all-Mitt or Paul Ryan, etc-to get it.
If this is what happens then, have no doubt that Trump will take a lot of supporters with him whether he himself runs independent or not.
No comments:
Post a Comment