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Sunday, March 13, 2016

Bernie Keeps up the Trade Demagoguery

Even Bernie's supporter, Robert Reich, admits that Bernie's attack on trade is more about politics than economics.

“It’s all about jobs, wages and economic insecurity,” said former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, a Sanders supporter. “It has a special resonance in the Rust Belt, but much of America has turned against trade in recent years, as median wages have stagnated or declined. Obviously trade isn’t the only culprit. Technological changes has also been taking away good jobs. But trade is easy to understand.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/clinton-hardens-line-against-tpp-trade-deal-220674#ixzz42pR1ANAA

Because an argument is facile doesn't make it correct. Many things are easy to understand and totally wrong. Bernie sounds an awful lot like Trump on trade. While he doesn't blatantly demonize the Chinese like Trump does, he does promise to revoke their most favored trade status.

This would be a mistake on a number of levels. Noah Smith warns Bernie that trade isn't all bad but of course, this is falling on deaf ears.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-06/sanders-fails-to-recognize-that-some-trade-is-good

It's clear how Bernie will try to attack Hillary tonight:

"I have a message for Secretary Clinton: We don't need to tinker with the TPP trade agreement. We need to defeat it. "

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/708847072217161734

The idea that all trade deals are evil is absurd. As Krugman explains they are about geopolitical relations among countries as much as anything.

Regarding China:

1. While arguably trade with China did hurt American wages, that train has long since left the station. Whatever damage has already been done.

At this point Chinese wages have risen sharply and many of the companies that did outsource are coming back-the famous 'reshoring.'

2. But what revoking it would do would lead to some real diplomatic problems with China, a big and rising country that we need a positive relationship with.
We certainly don't need to raise their tariff to 45 percent-which is what revoking their trade status would mean.

Even Reich hints that this attack trade is as much about politics as anything.

It surely doesn't do anything to give us any faith that Bernie is about more than just speaking to folks' aspirations without any real knowledge about how achieve things for them in office.

Noah Smith describes Bernie's campaign well:

"But instead of thoughtful moderation of free-trade policy, what Sanders is offering is an upending of the conventional wisdom. This is like finding out that reading in low light can be bad for your eyes, and reacting by giving up books. As usual, Sanders substitutes passion for thought and conviction for evidence. But I want to be clear that I surely don’t want my own cautions and caveats about free trade to become ammo for this kind of emotion-driven crusade."

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-06/sanders-fails-to-recognize-that-some-trade-is-good

Passion and conviction are not enough. Knowledge and facts have to be let in here at some point. But no in Bernie's campaign they haven't.
P.S. For the record, this is an old game in the Democratic party. Obama and Hillary competed to see who was most anti trade in 2008. She called for a moratorium on future trade deals and he wanted to end NAFTA.

Then he became President and now he's for the TPP. What this tells me is that trade is an easy issue to demagogue. 

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