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Monday, June 8, 2015

The Folly Of Betting Against the NY Yankees

     Is being shown yet again. They came into the season with very low expectations-the consensus among the pundits was that they'd be lucky to break .500. The thinking was that unless they had perfect health they weren't going to be able to contend and who can expect perfect health?

    Their offense also wasn't highly regarded coming in which didn't seem unreasonable either-after all, the days of the Bombers seemed long gone-both the 2013 and 2014 had been light hitting clubs that failed to score 670 runs. The Yanks in their heyday scored in the high 800s-and a few times even in the mid to high 900s-every year.

    Yet, with yesterday's sweep of the Anaheim Angels, the team has won 6 straight and with a 1 and 1/2 game lead over second place Tampa Bay.

     https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/standings/

    Meanwhile. they are now second in runs scored behind only Toronto while second to only Houston-tied with the Dodgers-with 74 home runs a pace of 210 homers for the year.

    A lot of players are contributing to the offensive light show-yesterday it was Brett Gardner's turn with a 3 run hr in the 5th to blow it open in the Yanks 6-2 win. Garret Jones also had a shot-he was the hero in Seattle-win 2 of the current 6 game winning streak-with a big home run in the 11th inning to give the game to the Yanks.

  http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2015/06/new_york_yankees_vs_los_angeles_angels_rapid_react_1.html

   For the year, Teixeria is leading the action with 17 hrs and 45 RBIs. Then of course, there's A-Rod with 11 dingers and 28 RBIs. He's been a major inspiration for his team this year and he leads the team with a .280 batting average and second behind only Teixeria with 47 walks. Eat your heart out A-Rod haters.

  https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/teams/nyy/stats/

  The real 'Muderer's Row' aspect of the Bombers this year though is the bullpen. Between Miller and Detances, teams know they pretty much have to come into the 7th inning with a lead or the odds are very much stacked against them.

  You'd think that history would serve as some guide-but most pundits seem to totally discount history in betting against the Yanks this year-and maybe betting too much for the Mets.

  With a weak AL East-after Tampa Bay, none of the other teams currently even own a .500 record-the Yanks would seem to have an excellent shot at the playoffs-unless the injury bug raises its ugly head.

  Once in the playoffs, with their bullpen they stand a decent chance in any 7 game playoff.

  Whatever the team achieves this year will be particularly sweet as they were do disregarded coming in-like the NY Giants in both 2007 and 2011.

   UPDATE: I will say this. If anyone looks like a dark horse in the East right now-for the Yanks to watch out for-it's the Blue Jays, as noted above, the Jays are the one team with more runs scored than the Yank-and by a considerable amount-38.

   The Jays intrigue me as though they're just 28-30, they are on a 5 game win streak; but what really impresses me is that despite being 2 games under .500 they have outscored opponents by 45 runs. This might be indicative that they're much better than their record.

   Arugably they should be 33.25-wich would put them head to head with the Yanks.

   http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2015-schedule-scores.shtml

   Who knows? What makes predictions so hard is there are just so many variables to choose from in the analysis to predict an outcome. Run differential is an important variable-but how do you know if it will prove to be the important one in any particular case?

   Earlier in the year I had noted that the Oakland As were strong on run differential despite a losing record and I had wondered if this was indicative that they were better than their record.

   Based on their current standing-the worst record in the AL-you'd have to say no. Still for now, they are a team the Yanks should keep an eye on. If anything I think the Devil Rays are lightweights-because the Yanks despite having just a 6-4 series edge of Tampa has a much bigger run differential within the series.

   UPDATE: I forgot to mention that the Blue Jays have a 4-2 series edge over the Bombers at this point.

   UPDATE 2.0: I just notice, however, that the Devil Rays have a 6-1 edge against the Jays. So the Yanks have mostly had the edge with Tampa and the Jays have had an edge over the Yanks; yet the Rays have a 6-1 edge over the Jays. Again, underscoring that there are too many factors to make predictions.

    

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